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--Geoff

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Monday, March 21, 2005

Yuma Recap

Thanks to a late night out with my singer on Saturday, I overslept on Sunday morning and didn't make it to Yuma till the top of the second. On the bright side, we got to play a semi-acoustic version of "Stacy's Mom" to a near-empty house in an obscure part of town.

As for the game against the D'backs, the Padres won it, 17-9. Steve Sparks started and pitched reasonably well. Sparks flew through the first three innings, before sparks flew in the fourth (oh, how clever we are). Randy Williams, fighting for the last bullpen spot, worked a scoreless fifth before losing the plate and being victimized by a couple of misplayed fly balls in the sixth. Williams walked the first three batters of the frame, then served up a drive to left that Jon Knott broke the wrong way for and turned into a bases-clearing double. The next batter hit an RBI triple to left-center on a ball that Knott got a late jump on, tying the game at 9-9.

Xavier Nady got the start in center field and hit a two-run bomb to left-center. Two minor leaguers who don't show up on anyone's prospect lists that impressed were third baseman Brett Bonvechio and right fielder Drew Macias. The former hit a mammoth home run just to the left of dead center, while the latter knocked three hits, including a homer to right. Bonvechio was Boston's 37th round pick in 2000 out of a Santa Clara high school. He hit .237/.309/.395 as a 22-year-old in the Midwest League last year, and Kevin Goldstein calls him an organizational guy, so there's probably not much here. Interestingly, Bonvechio is the guy the Padres received from the Red Sox for the guy (Henri Stanley) they flipped for Dave Roberts. As for Macias, Goldstein doesn't seem too impressed with him either. Macias hit .266/.340/.374 as a 21-year-old in the Midwest League and doesn't possess overwhelming tools. The Padres drafted him in the 22nd round in 2001 but he didn't sign, so they drafted him again the following year, this time in the 35th round.

Point of all this isn't to waste your time with guys who are longshots to make significant contributions at the big-league level, but to let you know that these two kids had a real nice showing in a game that featured players who are household names. Even if Bonvechio and Macias don't make it to the Show, they'll always be able to say they knocked one out while wearing a Padre uni, alongside the likes of Phil Nevin and Sean Burroughs.

And lest we get too sentimental, I should also note that I got my first look at catcher George Kottaras, who is rated by some as a better prospect than Josh Barfield. (I'm impressed with what Kottaras has done so far, but in my book, catchers are like pitchers: wait till Double-A before getting too excited.) At the plate, Kottaras looks very comfortable. He's got good balance and little wasted movement. That said, he took some ugly hacks on Sunday. Not surprising, given that he hasn't yet had a single at-bat above Low-A ball. Anyway, it was just one game; how he does at Elsinore this year obviously will give us a much better idea.

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Sunday, March 20, 2005

Padres Preview at BTF

It's up: Looking Forward to 2005: San Diego Padres Preview. Have a read, let me know how you like it. Thanks again to everyone for the excellent suggestions. I tried to incorporate as many of them as possible. Sorry if I missed yours.

Yuma, Anyone?

I'm heading out there for this afternoon's game against the Snakes. I'll be wearing a Chin Waggers T-shirt:

Stop by and say hey if you find yourself in the neighborhood.

In Other News

• Bush moving on from last year's arrest (NC Times). Matt Bush says he's learned a lot from last year's experience and is more focused now than ever. The first pick overall will start 2005 at Ft. Wayne of the Midwest League.
• Peavy's groin injury worrisome (U-T). Padres' ace could miss home opener April 7. Justin Germano and Tim Stauffer are mentioned as possible replacements.
• Klesko continues Petco Park whine (U-T). As Bobbi Fleckman would say, "You don't talk so much - just smile and look smart."
• 12-time All-Star retires; has back, vision problems (ESPN). Former Padre Roberto Alomar calls it a career. Should be a lock for the HOF.

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Friday, March 18, 2005

Here, Have Some Links

• Ryan Klesko's disappearing power? Guess someone forgot to tell Klesko: he smacked two homers in a 16-7 victory over the Rox.
• Chris Lindshield at SportsCentral identifies Mark Loretta as The Most Underrated Player in Baseball. Damn straight he is.
• Over at San Diego Spotlight, Rich Campbell is calling for the Pads to extend Ramon Hernandez' contract. He's 29 years old and he's the first really good catcher the Padres have had in a very long time. I'm with Rich on this one.
• Kevin Nicholson sighting: former Padre first-round pick signs with the Somerset Patriots of the Atlantic League. Not what anybody had in mind, I'm sure.

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Thursday, March 17, 2005

Themeless Thursday

I should be working on the preview, but despite your best efforts, I'm still having trouble motivating myself to write about Darrell May. The best I can say is that "more left-handed than Ismael Valdez" is gaining momentum as a catchphrase.

Speaking of May, he struggled again in Wednesday's loss to Oakland. Everyone is downplaying it, and we should remember how miserably Brian Lawrence did in the Cactus League last spring. But still...

Meanwhile, the folks over at Baseball Analysts have put together their preview of the NL West. The discussion is lively, even if some of the assertions (e.g., "Jason Schmidt is, by far, the best pitcher in the division", "No, just think of him [Sean Burroughs] as Jerry Royster, without Royster's strengths: speed and versatility") are a little baffling. David Pinto disagrees with their conclusion, preferring both the Dodgers and Padres to the Giants.

And on the prospect front, the Pads take a beating again. John Sickels uses several different methods to demonstrate how San Diego's farm system is among the worst in baseball. There's no need to fear, Grady Fuson is here.

Finally, LynchMob points out that Will Carroll has posted his Padres Team Health Report [subscription] over at Baseball Prospectus. On a red/yellow/green scale (think stoplights), Ryan Klesko and Woody Williams are red, while Phil Nevin, Mark Loretta, Sean Burroughs, Dave Roberts, Brian Giles, Jake Peavy, Tim Stauffer, and Trevor Hoffman are yellow. Carroll says we shouldn't expect Klesko's power to return and that there's a "dropoff ahead" for Williams. He also notes that due to less playing time earlier in his career, Loretta isn't as battered as many middle infielders his age. Carroll is another who doesn't believe Burroughs has any power, dismissing the notion that knee and shoulder problems played a part in last year's outage. Like many of us, Carroll is rooting for Stauffer based on the young hurler's integrity; obviously the shoulder remains a concern, although it appears not to be giving him any trouble now.

One thing that Carroll mentions which is interesting is that due to the Padres having so many injury-prone players in the heart of the lineup (Klesko, Nevin, and potentially Giles - about whom Carroll notes that players of his body type tend to start having knee and back problems at this stage in their careers), they need to keep guys around who can play multiple positions. Players such as Xavier Nady and Eric Young take on increased significance in this environment.

Interesting stuff. Any questions? I'll see if I can follow up with Carroll and get clarification or expansion on some of this.

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Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Padres Preview, Um, Preview

I'm about three-quarters of the way through with my Padres Preview for BTF. Here's a sneak peak at a player near and dear to our hearts, Khalil Greene:

This time last year, the shortstop job was wide open in San Diego. Greene took control in spring and proved to be one of the stabilizing influences on the ballclub until a freak injury ended his season in early September. Last year in this space I said: "Greene frequently is compared to Rich Aurilia, and if Greene takes the job, he'll hit about like Aurilia did in his first full season (.266/.319/.407)." Turns out we underestimated Greene's hitting ability, as he finished up at .273/.349/.446 (including a whopping .294/.337/.647 in 85 at-bats as leadoff hitter). Particularly encouraging was his second half showing. Greene hit .293/.351/.540 after the All-Star break and likely would have won Rookie of the Year honors had he not broken his right index finger on a bad hop grounder with two weeks to play. Here's a quick comparison between Greene's first full season and those of a couple other heralded young shortstops:

        Age  PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+ WS
Greene   24 554 .273 .349 .446 112  20
Jeter    22 654 .314 .370 .430 101  18
Tejada   23 674 .251 .325 .427  91  20

Defensively Greene doesn't have spectacular range but he has good instincts and a quick release on his throws. He also turns the double play well and doesn't panic. Greene was one of the keys to the Padres' big turnaround in 2004. If he stays healthy, he should build on his rookie season and be a very productive hitter at the bottom of the order, with 20+ homers a real possibility.

In Other News

• Over at Fanstop, Lost Gonzo points to a Peter Gammons article that identifies Tim Stauffer and Paul McAnulty as two rookies to watch this season.
• Alex Sanchez has been released by the Tigers. He's basically a younger version of Dave Roberts. Makes you wonder why Detroit wasn't able to get something for him, no?
• Speaking of Roberts, it looks like Ben Johnson might be the one to get the call if the Padres need a short-term replacement in center.
• According to this article at the NC Times, getting Xavier Nady 350+ at-bats continues to be a priority. Quoth Bruce Bochy: "We need to run him out there as much as possible."
• Minor-league pitchers hope they can stick (NC Times). The Padres are leaning toward a 12-man pitching staff, with Blaine Neal, Steve Sparks, and Randy Williams leading the charge for the last spot. Others, including Joe Dawley, Brian Falkenborg, and Danny Patterson, are considered longshots.
• Baseball America rankings casts doubt on prospects for Padres (U-T). Of course, the brightest prospects have graduated to the big club or moved to Pittsburgh. I also agree that many evaluators are way too down on Tim Stauffer and Matt Bush. With Stauffer, his performance and demeanor suggest greater things; with Bush, we don't know much beyond the fact that he's young and a good athlete.
• Great Literature Made Better By Adding Kevin Millar (Surviving Grady). Nothing to do with the Padres, but this is freakin' hilarious.

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Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Spring Training Notes

Pads beat the Mariners yesterday, 4-3. One hit each from 11 different players. Paul McAnulty doubled in his only trip to the plate. Xavier Nady, getting the start at third, singled and stole a base in four at-bats. Although he was reported to be out six weeks with a bum elbow, Freddy Guzman did appear as a pinch runner. He ran for Ramon Hernandez and was caught stealing.

On the pitching side, Brian Lawrence surrendered all three runs in just four innings of work before giving way to a bullpen that shut down the M's the rest of the way. Akinori Otsuka, working the seventh, allowed one hit and struck out three. (Speaking of Aki, is it great to see those Corky's Pest Control commercials again or what?)

• Studes at Hardball Times looks at the luckiest and unluckiest players from 2004 and cites the unlucky ones as potential bounceback candidates. He likes Dennys Reyes to improve, Jake Peavy not so much. [via Daily Lancer]
• Padres trim roster to 46 (Scout.com). No surprises here, except possibly that Sean Thompson, who spent all last year in the Midwest League, has been optioned to Double-A Mobile.
• David Pinto is up to more crazy good stuff over at Baseball Musings. Go on and give his new toy a spin. Pretty cool, huh?

That's all for now; more as it happens.

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Monday, March 14, 2005

Notes from the First Televised Game

Padres beat the A's, 5-1. Just some observations...

• Jake Peavy 91-94, good movement. All pitches working. Looks ready to go. Left earlier than scheduled due to a lot of pitches in third inning.
• Sean Burroughs batting leadoff, two weak grounders to second. Two other relatively nondescript at-bats.
• Pads second batter of the game, Mark Loretta, bloops a single to right. Mark Grant calls it a ducksnort. Schweet! :-)
• Oakland left fielder Nick Swisher can't throw. Nice stroke, though. Reminds me a little of Ryan Klesko.
• Rudy Seanez 89-91 (not as hard as I'd remembered). Fooled a lot of guys with off-speed stuff. More of a pitcher now.
• Paul McAnulty runs surprisingly well for a big guy. He'll start at Double-A but he's making a big impression; wouldn't surprise me to see him up during the season. Good stroke, hangs in well against lefties. If his defense is okay, he looks like he could be a semi-regular down the line.
• Khalil Greene struck out in his first at-bat, hit the ball hard in his second two trips to the plate.
• First impression of Corey Smith: strong, quick bat, reminds me a little of Kevin Mitchell. Looks very uncomortable at third base.
• J.J. Furmaniak did Y-M-C-A in his Padre Idol rookie initiation thing.
• Danny Patterson looked good. High-80s fastball, everything moved.

Generally, it was just great to see the guys out on the field again.

Other Stuff

• Greene stamps (U-T). A fascinating look at Khalil Greene's defensive prowess. This is probably the best article I've ever seen from Tom Krasovic. Some great statistical and anecdotal nuggets:
  • "The Padres allowed 18 percent fewer balls to land in front of the left fielder than the major league average."
  • "Between shortstop and third base, the Padres allowed 24 percent fewer hits than the major league average last year. Only the Red Sox and Dodgers did better."
  • "Greene's relaxed demeanor and surfer-dude blond hair belie a killer instinct. Loretta said Greene doesn't just want to make plays, he wants to erase specific hitters. 'Me, I'm just trying to make a play,' Loretta said with a laugh."
• San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects (Minor League Ball). John Sickels has five guys rated at B-minus or better: RHP Brad Baker (B-), RHP Tim Stauffer (B-), RHP Travis Chick (B), C George Kottaras (B), 2B Josh Barfield (B). I think he underestimates Stauffer, but then so do most evaluators. Sickels also sees OF Freddy Guzman as more of a support player, not a starter; I agree with his assessment. He's a little too down on LHP Sean Thompson (#10) and SS Matt Bush (#12). I'm looking forward to getting a look at Chick and Kottaras this year at Elsinore.
• 05 NLW Preview: Padres (Baseballtopia). These guys like the Padres to win the division.

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Saturday, March 12, 2005

Saturday Smatterings

Remember the Potentially Cool Thing (TM) that I mentioned might be happening to Ducksnorts? Well, you can take the "might" out of that sentence. I still can't tell you what it is, so I'll just tease a little more. But it really is cool, and it will be happening very soon.

Meantime, here are some odds and ends I thought you might find interesting.

• BP 1999 Top 40 Prospect List Review (SOSH). As you are no doubt aware, I love these kinds of studies. [via Baseball Think Factory]
• The Transaction Guy likes the Padres' signing of Peavy. And why not?
• Charting Range (Baseball Musings). David Pinto is taking his play-by-play defensive data and displaying it graphically. It's in the development stages, but this is very cool stuff.
• Speaking of graphical displays, Major League Charts is a fun tool. It seems more interesting than useful at this point, but I'm glad to see folks thinking in different ways. This is how breakthroughs are made.
• Some thoughts on the steroid situation from Only Baseball Matters, Baseball Musings, and Futility Infielder. Seems many of us are wondering why this concerns Congress.
• And here are the rantings of some possibly well-intentioned but perhaps overly self-righteous lawmakers. If there's anything that this mess needs right now, it's rush to judgment. Yes, I'm certain that will make it all disappear.
• White Sox 6, Padres 3 (ESPN). Most of the damage came against Darrell May and Justin Germano over the first four innings. Brad Baker, Chris Hammond, and Blaine Neal each spun a scoreless frame. Xavier Nady, getting the start at third, had two hits including a homer. The bomb was an opposite field shot off Freddy Garcia.

That's all for now. More as it happens...

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Friday, March 11, 2005

Spring Training Notes

My wife just found out that Dave Roberts is half Okinawan. I can't say mean things about him anymore.

• Rockies 11, Padres 5 (ESPN). Two hits for Phil Nevin, homer for Michael Johnson. Scoreless innings from prospects Travis Chick and Rusty Tucker, and from NRIs Joe Dawley and Brian Falkenborg. Woody Williams surrendered 9 runs in 2 1/3 innings. Said Williams: "Obviously you want to get outs, but it wasn't my day. ... I'm not fazed a bit. Seven or eight years ago, it would've [bothered me], but you learn to deal with things as they come."
• Bochy plans on May being his fifth starter (U-T). Steve Sparks and Tim Stauffer continue to impress. The former may end up in the bullpen, the latter looks to be back at Portland. Check out the sidebar: Mark Sweeney in center?

That's all I've got for now...

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Thursday, March 10, 2005

Spring Training Notes

• Anabreafullercaliangeles Angels 2, Padres 1 (ESPN). Starting at shortstop, Geoff Blum knocks two hits, including a homer. Xavier Nady singles in three at-bats, starting at third base and batting fifth. Solid pitching performances from Steve Sparks and Tim Stauffer.
• White Sox 7, Padres 3 (ESPN). Two hits for Phil Nevin. Another hit and RBI for Jon Knott. Kervin Jacobo? Didn't he go somewhere in the minor-league phase of the Rule V draft? (Looks like the Pads re-signed him.) Three strong innings from Brian Lawrence.
• Congress Subpoenas Padres GM To Talk About Steroids (NBCSanDiego). No offense, but why do politicians so frequently sound like idiots when they open their mouths?
• Ben Davis Follow Up (PFS76). Seems the former #1 draft pick left a bad taste in a few mouths. Feel free to interpret that last sentence however you see fit.
• Padres Notebook: Peavy's pact includes possible escalator ride (NC Times). LynchMob pointed us to this in yesterday's comments. The gist of it is that Peavy gets a guaranteed $14.5M over the next four years and could earn as much as $25M depending on incentives. If I'm reading correctly, that latter scenario would have Peavy winning a Cy Young Award and the Pads picking up his option in 2009. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if Peavy wins a Cy Young between now and then, he'll have been well worth the money.

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Wednesday, March 9, 2005

Padres Douse Brewers

Actually, "Brewers Get Hammered" would have worked just as well. Anyway, the Friars busted out the whoopin' sticks en route to an 18-5 victory over Milwaukee. Robert Fick, Ryan Klesko, and Jon Knott all homered for the Pads. Knott's was a grand slam. Mark Loretta collected three hits, with Sean Burroughs, Paul McAnulty, and Phil Nevin adding two apiece. Jake Peavy allowed a run over three innings. Blaine Neal surrendered three runs on four hits (two homers) in his only inning of work. Line of the game:

               AB R H BI
J Barfield 2b   0 3 0 0

Among the kids, Knott and McAnulty are off to fast starts. McAnulty, the Pads #10 prospect according to Baseball America, is profiled in yesterday's U-T.

In Other News

Didn't think I could make it through an entire post without bullet points, did ya?

• Thompson Tuesdays (Scout.com) is back. Padres prospect Sean Thompson talks about his first big-league spring training appearance. I absolutely love that he is doing this.
• Padres happy former Arizona pitcher now on their side (NC Times). According to this article, Steve Sparks is "locked in a tight race with Blaine Neal and Randy Williams for the last of seven bullpen spots." Interesting. That's the first time I've heard his name mentioned as a possible reliever with the big club. Also: "A slight mechanical flaw spotted this spring by Padres pitching coaches has him tossing what he calls his crispest knuckleballs of the past few years."

And that, my friends, is all for now.

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Tuesday, March 8, 2005

You Know, Padres News and Stuff

• Padres 4, Angels 0 (ESPN). Adam Eaton, Scott Linebrink, Rusty Tucker, Brian Giles, Ramon Hernandez, and Sean Burroughs looking good. Is it great to see Tucker back or what? I have a sneaking suspicion we'll see him in San Diego at some point this year.
• Notes: Eaton pleased with his progress (Padres.com). An update on Eaton's new delivery, which keeps him from pitching across his body.
• Mailbag: What is Burroughs' role? (Padres.com). Quoth John Schlegel: "...the bottom line is this is a very talented player and the club no doubt would like nothing better than for him to have a solid all-around season at the plate, with a little more pop and a little more consistent success at getting on base." Notes also on Tim Stauffer, Brian Giles, and Andy Ashby.
• Young brings versatility, experience (Padres.com). Love the attitude: "I'm at the point where if you're an athlete, you can basically play anywhere, whether it's for a short period of time or a day at a time or whatever."
• Padres' Johnson opening some eyes (U-T). Thanks to several folks for pointing us to this article. Outfielder Ben Johnson is the prospect who came over from the Cardinals in the Carlos Hernandez deal a few years ago. What we said about Johnson in July 2001:

  Ben Johnson made a terrific throw from right field to keep a runner from scoring. This is not the first time I've been impressed by his arm. He's also got a very quick bat but he needs to work the count better to take advantage of it. He swings a lot early in the count and then ends up either striking out or hitting a pitcher's pitch. Johnson's numbers are nice in and of themselves; taking into consideration his youth and relatively crude approach, they're even more impressive. If he learns how to wait for his pitch, he could be a scary, scary hitter.

  What a strange day that was. It marked Oliver Perez' Cal League debut and the game was cancelled due to a bomb threat. I'd forgotten about that.

On a completely unrelated note, Bertrand Smith's Acres of Books is a fantastic store. If you're ever in or near Long Beach, I highly recommend it. The place is huge and very well organized. I found an intriguing book called "Songs in the Key of Z" (which has its own web site) that details "outsider music," including the likes of Syd Barrett, Captain Beefheart, Daniel Johnston, Wesley Willis (link is to a killer tribute album with free MP3s; "Cut the Mullet" is brilliant - just a heads-up, there is some swearing in here), Jandek, and more. Fascinating stuff.

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Monday, March 7, 2005

Box Scores!

Making progress on the BTF Padres Preview. I'm through the starting lineup and into the bench. Then it's onto the pitchers, farm system, and front office. One thing I've noticed is that the first five hitters in the lineup are all age 33 or 34 and hail from SoCal. We should come up with a name for these guys: Freeway Five?

Or maybe not.

So here are some box scores (ESPN):

• Mar 3: Sea 5, SD 4 Jon Knott, Adam Eaton, Damian Jackson, Josh Barfield, and Paul McAnulty.
• Mar 4: Ana 6, SD 4 Jake Peavy, Michel Hernandez, Ben Johnson, Jackson, and McAnulty.
• Mar 5: SD 5, Sea 2 Joey Dawley, Brian Lawrence, Steve Sparks, Ramon Hernandez, Robert Fick (at catcher).
• Mar 5: SF 5, SD 4 Darrell May, Tim Stauffer, Chris Oxspring, Rusty Tucker, M. Hernandez, Jackson, Mark Sweeney.
• Mar 6: SD 9, Sea 6 Blaine Neal, Woody Williams, Xavier Nady (in center), Brian Giles, McAnulty, B. Johnson, Humberto Quintero, M. Hernandez.

And some other goodies.

• Closer (Hardball Times). Studes looks at the P rankings of big-league closers in 2004. "P is the measure of how important a situation is, based on its potential impact on Win Probability." According to the article, "Trevor Hoffman had the highest P among all closers last year, primarily because almost half of his appearances occurred during a one- or two-run lead."
• Stauffer thrives on skepticism (U-T). Stauffer draws comparisons to Khalil Greene for being underestimated by talent evaluators and for his competitiveness and poise.
• Padres Notebook: Klesko makes spring debut (NC Times). Reports on his balky left shoulder are good. Let's hope that remains the case.
• Hernandez excels as mentor to pitchers (NC Times). Nice piece on the Man Who Wiped Our Memories of Wiki Bennett.
• How The Sausage Is Made: Inside The Ranking Process (BA). John Manuel talks about how Baseball America assembles its top 100 prospect list.
• Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects (Minor League Ball). John Sickels has former Padre David Pauley at #18.

That's all for now. Back to the Padres bench...

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Thursday, March 3, 2005

More Links

While I'm gearing up the BTF Padres preview, it's just links for a while. Read 'em. Read the guys over on the right. Lotta good stuff out there.

• Klesko undergoes MRI on throwing shoulder (NC Times). This is not the shoulder he had surgery on at the end of 2003.
• Burroughs happy to give up leadoff spot (NC Times). Quoth Burroughs: "I got to the point where I basically hated it. It was a good experience, but I don't think I was suited for it." [via Padres Press]
• 2005 Top 100 Prospects: 26-50 (BA). Josh Barfield checks in at #45. From Padres scouting director Bill Gayton: "The kid understands hitting. It's just rare to see a young hitter who understands how to stay inside the ball so well."
• 2005 Season Preview (National League) (Doubleswitch). He likes the Pads to win the West. Nice comp between Ramon Hernandez and Jason Varitek (and the money the former likely will command because of the latter). And this: "Roberts is a decent player, a great baserunner who will take some walks. But he's also 33 years old, has never played a full season, and really isn't as good as the guy he's replacing (Payton)." [thanks to Braves Beat]
• San Diego Padres: Greene-r Pastures (Talking Baseball). Another preview. This one calls the Pads a lock to win 90 games, which seems overly optimistic to me.
• Breakfast With Bill James (Part Three) (Baseball Analysts). Rich Lederer wraps up his interview with James. Some gems in here: "I guess Clemens is the greatest pitcher I ever saw -- but Saberhagen on a given day, when he was healthy, it was hard to see what separated him from being perfect." Also, his riffs on Rickey Henderson and Whitey Herzog are great.
• Runnin' with the Padres (Press-Telegram). Learn more about Padres spring training running coach, LaTanya Sheffield.

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Wednesday, March 2, 2005

Just Links

A few items of interest...

• For those of us who grew up reading Bill James, Rich Lederer has posted a terrific interview with the man who brought the Baseball Abstract into the world and got so many of us starting to think more deeply about this great game. There's so much information here that I'm not going to try and abstract it for you (pun intended). Actually, the bit about Enos Cabell is pretty cool. Anyway, go read it; it's well worth your time.
• Back in December I mentioned that the Padres were holding a contest to find a new theme song.The results are in and the very talented Gary Hoey has won. Congrats to Mr. Hoey. [thanks to San Diego Blog]
• Speaking of interviews, Batter's Box talks with Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi. Candid stuff: "Every time we spend money, you guys get disappointed. It's almost like you think we should put the 25 cheapest guys out there and win." [via Value Over Replacement Blog]
• And speaking of blogs and ballclubs, Will Carroll has some thoughts on this very topic. Be sure to read the ensuing discussion, as some of the best stuff can be found there.
• GM Towers in spotlight over Caminiti remarks (U-T). I'm leaving this alone for the most part; not that it's not an important issue, but right now we're still at the tabloid stage and there isn't a lot of light being shed. We're moving in the right direction, even getting this out in the open, but we're not there yet. Actually, what I wanted to mention in this is the sidebar. Former Olympic hurdler LaTonya Sheffield is working with the Pads on their running skills. This is brilliant: "Asked which Padres most impressed her, Sheffield gave a surprising answer. 'No. 20 . . . (Miguel) Ojeda?' she said, referring to the 6-2, 190-pound catcher. 'He's a big guy, but he has great technique.'" Who knew!

Finally, if you've e-mailed me in the past year or so, can you drop me a quick line? Unless you're in one of my Scoresheet leagues, I probably no longer have your e-mail address. God bless computers...

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Tuesday, March 1, 2005

All Is Forgiven

My computer seems to have been hit by a virus. After a few hours of troubleshooting I was able to boot in safe mode and copy all my files (except e-mails, which appear to be lost forever) to CD and load them onto another machine. However, most of the programs that were installed are gone. Also there may be a problem with the hard drive. So at some point I'll have to wipe the system, install a new hard drive, and reload Windows XP and a boatload of software. The good news is, what could have been a disaster (losing thousands of files) is merely a pain in the posterior.

And the even better news is, the Padres have signed Jake Peavy to a 4-year deal worth a guaranteed $15M plus incentives. This is a great, great deal. Don't believe me? Let's compare Peavy's deal with those of some guys who didn't lead the big leagues in ERA last year and who aren't still maturing:

Player     Age Yr   $M    IP   H  BB  SO  ERA
Benson,Kr   30  3 22.5 200.1 202  61 134 4.31
Lieber,Jo   35  3 21.0 176.2 216  18 102 4.33
Lowe,De     32  4 36.0 182.2 224  71 105 5.42
Milton,Er   29  3 25.5 201.0 196  75 161 4.75
Ortiz,Ru    31  4 33.0 204.2 197 112 143 4.13
Peavy,Ja    24  4 15.0 166.1 146  53 173 2.27

And this is kind of funny, I guess, unless you're the Dodgers:

            $M/Yr  ERA $M/Yr/ERA
Lowe         9.00 5.42    1.66
Peavy        3.75 2.27    1.65
Lowe/Peavy   2.40 2.39

Okay, so $M/Yr/ERA is totally bogus. I mean, millions of dollars per year per earned run per inning pitched? WTF? Point is, these ratios shouldn't be this close. Or to put it another way, if Peavy had managed to post an ERA nearly 2 1/2 times higher than he actually did, would he have gotten nearly 2 1/2 times the money? I could be wrong, but I don't think it's supposed to work that way.

Did I mention this is a great deal?

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