In Search of the Five-Tool Prospect

In baseball circles, we often hear about the "five-tool prospect." The traditional five tools judged by scouts in evaluating a player are the ability to hit, power, speed, fielding skill, and throwing arm. Symobolically, if we think of each of these tools as points on a star, then a player who possesses all five tools should be a star. There are other important factors, of course, such as strike-zone judgment, dedication, coachability, etc., but a player who has all five tools generally has quite a head start over players who are less talented.

Now that we've defined the five tools and their significance in prospect evaluation, let's examine some of the best five-tool prospects out there today. I've excluded players who have seen any time in the big leagues, which eliminates some outstanding young players, including Dermal Brown, Michael Coleman, Chad Hermansen, D'Angelo Jimenez, George Lombard, Ruben Mateo, Ben Petrick, Julio Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Vernon Wells. With that disclaimer out of the way, here are my top 10 five-tool prospects:

1. Corey Patterson, OF, Cubs

Any discussion of five-tool prospects today begins with Patterson. The left-handed hitter has drawn favorable comparisons to big leaguers Ray Lankford and Kenny Lofton. In his pro debut, in the Midwest League, Patterson hit.320/.358/592 (BA/OBP/SLG) as one of the younger players in the league. An excellent defender in center field and with speed to burn (33 steals in 42 tries), Patterson's one area of weakness right now is strike-zone judgment (25 BBs/85 Ks in 475 ABs). A reluctance to draw walks can stall a player's development at higher levels; however, there are exceptions--Vladimir Guerrero was one, and I suspect Patterson will be another. Patterson also had an explosive Arizona Fall League campaign, all the more impressive because he was playing against much older and more experienced players, and could see action with the big club as early as this season.

2. Chin-Feng Chen, OF, Dodgers

The kid from Taiwan simply dominated the California League in his first exposure to North American baseball, hitting .316/.404/.580. Chen drew 75 walks in 510 at bats, a good sign, and was 31 for 36 in stolen base attempts. A solid defensive corner outfielder, Chen draws raves for his work ethic. He does strike out a bit much (129) but with his all-around offensive package, the Dodgers should be willing to live with that. In a system largely devoid of prospects at the higher levels, Chen could advance very quickly and projects to be a Tim Salmon type hitter down the line.

3. Abraham Nuñez, OF, Marlins

I kept going back and forth between Chen and Nuñez as the #2 guy behind Patterson. Both carved up Cal League pitchers last year, and although Chen is closer to the big leagues, the younger Nuñez might have a higher ceiling. The switch-hitter batted .273/.378/.492 at High Desert in 1999. And although his home park was especially conducive to offense, any 19-year-old who puts up numbers like that at High-A ball demands attention. Nuñez has an advanced knowledge of the strike zone (86 BBs/122 Ks in 488 ABs) for such a young player and has outstanding speed, stealing 40 bases in 53 tries. Acquired by Florida as the player to be named later in the Matt Mantei deal, Nuñez has as much upside as anybody currently in professional baseball.

4. Alex Escobar, OF, Mets

There is another very important factor in the success of a young player: the ability to stay healthy. There is no questioning Escobar's talent but he has been plagued by injuries throughout his brief career. After a breakout season in 1998 (.310/.393/.584 in 416 ABs, with 54 BBs, 133 Ks, and 49 steals in 56 attempts in the SAL), the young flychaser played just 3 games last year due to first a stress fracture in his back and then a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Escobar draws comparisons to a young Eric Davis or Andruw Jones. If he can overcome his injury problems, the sky is the limit.

5. Josh Hamilton, OF, Devil Rays

The first player taken in the 1999 First-Year Player Draft, Hamilton adjusted to wooden bats very nicely, hitting .347/.378/.593 in 236 Rookie League at bats before tailing off to .194/.213/.236 in 72 at bats in the short-season Class-A New York-Penn League. As with Patterson, he could stand to control the strike zone a bit more (14 BBs/57 Ks combined last season). There's a lot of work to be done here, but that's to be expected of a kid just out of high school. Hamilton should be an impact player at the big-league level by 2003.

6. Jackson Melian, OF, Yankees

Although Melian hasn't exactly been the brilliant star everyone expected when the Yanks signed him out of Venezuela at age 16, he has exceptional athletic ability and has held his own as one of the younger players in his league since coming to North America. Melian, who just turned 20, hit .283/.358/.413 in the tough Florida State League. His plate discipline is decent but not great (49 BBs/98 Ks in 467 ABs) and he is not an outstanding basestealer (11 in 19 tries) but the tools are definitely there. Melian also had a standout winter in the Venezuelan League, which bodes well for the future. Still very young, it's just a matter of time before this kid starts putting up big numbers. With talent coming out their ears at every level in the organization, the Yankees will not rush Melian. Don't expect him to make an impact before 2002.

7. Milton Bradley, OF, Expos

All jokes about "being a gamer" aside, Bradley is a serious prospect with serious tools. Often compared to a young Rondell White, the switch-hitting Bradley batted .329/.391/.526 in 346 Eastern League at bats. He doesn't draw a lot of walks (33) but doesn't strike out much (61), either. And although he only stole 14 bases in 24 attempts last year, Bradley has the ability to be a force on the basepaths as well. The kid out of Poly High in Long Beach, CA, also had a terrific Arizona Fall League campaign, further solidifying his status as a top prospect. Bradley's biggest problem to this point has been himself, as a few unfortunate on-field altercations have given him something of a bad reputation. Even if we chalk those up to youthful exuberance, once a player acquires a certain reputation, it can be very difficult for him to overcome. But if the talent is there--and it definitely is in Bradley's case--eventually the player will succeed.

8. Jayson Werth, C, Orioles

The lone member of the top 10 who isn't an outfielder, Werth displays an unusual array of talents for a catcher. Frequently compared to Craig Biggio and Jason Kendall because of his athletic prowess, Werth hit .305/.403/.394 in 236 Carolina League at bats before posting a .273/.364/.355 line in Double-A. He controls the strike zone (54 BBs/63 Ks in 387 at bats, combined) and has very good speed (23 for 27 in stolen bases, combined). At 6'6", he doesn't look much like a catcher; a move to another position is possible, but wherever Werth ends up, he should be a good one.

9. Alex Fernandez, OF, Mariners

Not to be confused with the Marlins' righthander of the same name, this Fernandez hit .282/.320/.458 in the California League. The left-handed hitter is very much a work-in-progress, as shown by his 21 walks and 83 strikeouts in 426 at bats. On the positive side, Fernandez doesn't turn 19 until May and he already has a season of High-A ball under his belt. Not many guys can say that. The Mariners should bring him along slowly, letting him experience success at each level, one at a time. If they are patient with Fernandez, and if he develops as expected, the Mariners could have a superstar on their hands.

10. Choo Freeman, OF, Rockies

This last spot was the toughest to fill. There were several worthy candidates--Minnesota's B.J. Garbe and San Diego's Vince Faison immediately spring to mind as two who just missed the cut--but I went with Freeman because he's further along in his development and with a future in Coors Field, his offensive upside is that much higher. Freeman is a former prep football star who is still a diamond in the rough when it comes to baseball. In the SAL last year, he hit .274/.336/.423 over 485 ABs. His plate discipline is atrocious (39 BBs/132 Ks) for a guy who hasn't yet put up big-time power numbers, but Freeman does just about everything else very well. How long it takes Freeman to figure out the strike zone will determine how long it takes him to arrive in Denver. Once he's there, anything is possible.

January 22, 2000