From time to time, I'll go back and look at stuff I've written--don't like to overindulge but it helps keep me honest. After the 1998 season, I played around a little with Bill James' Brock2 career projection system.

Anyway, just for fun, I thought we'd take a look back and see how close (or not) the peak projections turned out to be. For each player, the top value is what Brock2 predicted, while the bottom is what actually happened. For the Brock2 line, OBP is simply (H + BB)/(AB + BB).

              AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   BA  OBP  SLG
Abreu,Bo     502  72 160 30  5 21  83  84 .318 .416 .524
             588 118 170 48  4 31 110 106 .289 .393 .543

Damon,Jo     558 104 167 24  8 19  81  58 .300 .365 .473
             644 108 165 34  4  9  49  61 .256 .324 .363

Encarnacion  579 117 190 31 13 34 116  41 .329 .373 .603
             412  53 110 15  3 17  58  30 .267 .317 .442

Erstad,Da    592 116 192 43  3 29 106  60 .325 .387 .554
             631  89 163 35  1  9  63  62 .258 .331 .360

Fullmer,Br   526  75 157 46  2 21  84  48 .299 .357 .513
             303  51  83 26  4 14  39  20 .274 .337 .525

Garciaparra  643 135 216 42  8 46 143  44 .336 .378 .641
             529 104 197 51  3 21  96  61 .372 .434 .599

Grieve,Be    563 118 182 41  2 27  99  94 .323 .420 .549
             349  41  84 23  0 11  43  46 .241 .342 .401

Guerrero,Vl  575 120 198 37  5 46 137  49 .344 .396 .666
             432  68 139 24  1 29  77  58 .322 .406 .583

Helton,To    517  89 171 34  1 34 106  58 .330 .398 .598
             587 132 197 54  2 49 146  98 .336 .432 .685

Hidalgo,Ri   465  86 153 34  0 23  83  47 .330 .391 .551
             352  50  86 16  3 14  45  38 .244 .327 .426

Jeter,De     617 139 207 28  7 22  96  71 .336 .404 .511
             614 110 191 35  3 21  74  56 .311 .377 .480

Jones,An     507 107 151 30  5 42 117  56 .298 .368 .635
             415  65 108 23  0 24  70  65 .260 .366 .489

Kendall,Ja   532 104 179 38  3 15  79  61 .336 .405 .504
             606  84 161 22  2 10  53  44 .266 .335 .358

Kotsay,Ma    555  86 169 26  6 15  75  45 .304 .357 .454
             426  59 128 21  5 11  48  45 .300 .367 .451

Lee,De       486  96 133 33  1 28  87  63 .275 .357 .519
             416  64 107 24  5 19  57  60 .257 .352 .476

Marrero,El   468  65 128 32  2 13  61  54 .274 .349 .434
             203  37  54 11  3  6  23  15 .266 .312 .438

Ordonez,Ma   548  92 169 29  2 22  85  37 .309 .352 .489
             593  97 181 40  1 31 113  70 .305 .382 .533

Ortiz,Da     501 111 158 36  0 24  87  76 .317 .406 .531
             276  40  78 21  1 13  53  36 .283 .363 .507

Posada,Jo    348  58  95 23  0 18  58  52 .273 .368 .494
             379  50  93 19  2 12  57  53 .245 .341 .401

Renteria,Ed  577 111 182 23  2  5  59  61 .316 .381 .388
             379  49 116 26  2  7  50  31 .306 .361 .441

Rodriguez,A  623 144 212 38  4 51 148  54 .340 .393 .660
             439  87 135 22  2 37  96  61 .308 .399 .620

Rolen,Sc     558 133 175 42  3 38 117  92 .313 .411 .604
             408  55 103 21  5 17  68  54 .252 .349 .453

Sweeney,Mi   461  64 131 26  0 19  69  45 .283 .348 .464
             575 101 185 44  2 22 102  54 .322 .387 .520

Tatis,Fe     536  86 160 33  3 18  78  46 .300 .354 .472
             288  35  68 14  1 13  44  27 .236 .315 .427

Tejada,Mi    102  21  27  6  0  5  16  10 .266 .331 .471
             475  73 143 23  0 26  93  24 .301 .341 .514

Walker,To    494  80 155 36  2 14  70  49 .314 .376 .480
             248  42  72 11  4  9  44  27 .290 .355 .476

Fullmer, Hidalgo, Renteria, Rodriguez, Rolen, and Tatis are in their age 27 season (stats through Aug. 8). Encarnacion (26), Grieve (26) Guerrero (26), Jones (25), Kotsay (26), Lee (26), Ortiz (26), and Tejada (26) aren't there yet; their bottom line represents YTD for 2002.

What's interesting (to me) is that even the guys who miss the mark (Damon, Erstad, Hidalgo, Kendall, Posada, and Rolen) did have similar peaks to what Brock2 predicted, albeit in different years than expected. Helton, Ordonez, and Sweeney all have exceeded expectations, while only Encarnacion and Grieve have fallen short; it's worth noting that the latter two haven't reached age 27.

Of the hitters who fell short of Brock2's age 27 projections, all but Damon and Posada have had injury problems. Damon's age 27 is looking like a fluke, as surrounding seasons are more in line with his projected numbers. Posada, being a catcher, didn't kick his offense into high gear till he was a shade older.

Of those who exceeded expectations, Helton has the advantage of Coors Field. I don't say this to denigrate him; despite his home park, he is a terrific hitter. But given his home park, it's not a great shock that Helton has been even better than the projections indicated he would be. Sweeney benefitted greatly from a change in position. Had he stayed behind the plate, it's questionable whether he ever would have developed into the offensive force that he's become. Moving him to first base is one of the few really smart things the Royals have done over the past several years. As for Ordonez, I have no explanation for him. The only thing I can think that Brock2 might've had against him is that he didn't reach the bigs till relatively late and so didn't give him as much room to grow as some of the younger kids. But he's basically become the new Tim Salmon.

Again, this is just another fun tool. Like baseball itself, don't take it too seriously and be sure to enjoy it.

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