In the Driver's Seat: Making Contact and Hitting the Ball Hard

Here's a metric I've been playing with for a while. It's not predictive, I don't believe, nor is it revolutionary in any sense of the word. It's mostly just fun. The metric is extra base hits divided by strikeouts. It's supposed to find the guys who hit the ball hardest while making the best contact.

If we just look at the period 1980-1999, there are some interesting names at the top of the list. Among 1668 player-seasons of 500 AB or more during this time, the top 10 XBH/SO scores are distributed among three men:

Player         Year   AB  XBH  SO  XBH/SO
-----------------------------------------
Bill Buckner   1980  578   54  18   3.000
Tony Gwynn     1995  535   43  15   2.867
Don Mattingly  1986  677   86  35   2.457
Tony Gwynn     1997  592   68  28   2.429
Bill Buckner   1986  629   59  25   2.360
Tony Gwynn     1992  520   36  16   2.250
Tony Gwynn     1991  530   42  19   2.211
Don Mattingly  1985  652   86  41   2.098
Don Mattingly  1984  603   69  33   2.091
Bill Buckner   1982  657   54  26   2.077

I've never been a great fan of Mattingly, and talk of him as a Hall of Fame candidate troubles me, but I have to give the guy his due. When healthy, he was a force. He's the only player on here who hit 20 or more homers in any of these season, and he did it all three times, including 30+ twice. The only guy to knock more out of the park among the top 50 qualifiers was Frank Thomas in 1993. The Big Hurt hit 43 homers that season and sported a 1.426 XBH/SO.

Unfortunately, in and of itself, this metric rewards extreme contact hitters even if they don't have much power. Gwynn hit all of four homers in 1991. Looking back even further, from 1951 to 1999, Nellie Fox's 1952 season checks in at #16 among batters with 500 or more at-bats in a year, at a cool 4.364 (average for the period is .466). That's all well and good, except that Fox didn't homer in 1952. Nor did he homer in 1958, when he posted the 23rd best XBH/SO score in that time range. The point of this metric--apart from being fun--is to uncover batters who make good contact and hit the ball hard.

So, what if we stick with the 1980-1999 time frame but limit ourselves to guys who hit 30 or more homers in a season? Then the list looks like this:

Player          Year   AB  XBH  SO  XBH/SO
------------------------------------------
Don Mattingly   1986  677   86  35   2.457
Don Mattingly   1985  652   86  41   2.098
Cal Ripken      1991  650   85  46   1.848
Don Mattingly   1987  569   70  38   1.842
Gary Sheffield  1992  557   70  40   1.750
George Brett    1985  550   73  49   1.490
Frank Thomas    1993  549   77  54   1.426
Cecil Cooper    1982  654   73  53   1.377
Vlad Guerrero   1999  610   84  62   1.355
Barry Larkin    1996  517   69  52   1.327

A nice group, to say the least. A lot of familiar faces. How many people remember Cooper being that good? Or Larkin? Sheffield and Guerrero were each 23 years old when they reached top 10 status.

Now, just for fun, who recorded the 10 worst scores over 1980-1999? Funny you should ask....

Player            Year   AB  XBH   SO  XBH/SO
---------------------------------------------
Eric Yelding      1990  511   15   87    .172
Delino DeShields  1991  563   29  151    .192
Tom Goodwin       1998  520   18   90    .200
Delino DeShields  1996  581   25  124    .202
Pat Listach       1992  579   26  124    .210
Vince Coleman     1987  623   27  126    .214
Vince Coleman     1986  600   21   98    .214
Chris Gomez       1997  522   26  114    .228
Walt Weiss        1993  500   17   79    .233
Johnnie LeMaster  1983  534   23   96    .240

An odd, if inept, bunch. All but two of these guys stole 38 or more bases in their season of ineffectiveness. The two who didn't (Gomez and Weiss) played a scarce position, shortstop. What's really fascinating is that DeShields, who checks in at #2 and #4 on the list of most punchless strikeout artists from 1980 to 1999, was dealt for Pedro Martinez, one of the elite pitchers of his generation, and Henry Rodriguez. And it's not like DeShields suddenly turned into a pumpkin. He made the top 10 once before the trade, and once after.

Goodwin was a first-round draft pick, taken just ahead of Mo Vaughn and Chuck Knoblauch (and several rounds before guys like John Olerud, Tim Salmon, Jeff Bagwell, Ryan Klesko, Jim Thome, Brian Giles, and Jeff Kent--but that's another rant for another day). Listach won the AL MVP for his performance in 1992.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but yes, Virginia, speed does have slumps. Sometimes they last entire seasons or even careers.