Future Friars: Padres Top 30 Prospects for 2002, Part 3

The top third of the Padres Top 30 consists of very high ceiling players who could develop into big-league stars. Sean Burroughs will get a chance to show what he can do in San Diego this year at age 21. Jake Peavy and Dennis Tankersley are among the best pitching prospects in the game. Xavier Nady, Ben Johnson, and Mark Phillips all could be future All-Stars. 2001 draftee Jake Gautreau looked very good in his pro debut; if he can make the move to second base, he'll be an offensive force there. Under the direction of Kevin Towers and his staff, the Padres have done an excellent job of assembling some top-shelf talent in recent years. The names in this list, as well as the presence of Towers, should give hometown fans cause for hope in the very near future.

 1.  Sean Burroughs, 3B
DOB: 09/12/80
Acq: draft 1998, rd 1; Wilson HS (Long Beach, Calif.)
Ht:  6'2" Wt: 200

Burroughs' story is well known by now. Son of a former #1 pick overall. Little League World Series hero. He has a smooth lefty stroke that generates gaps power to all fields. Burroughs, like his father Jeff, is very strong, and he projects eventually to hit 25+ homers a year. At the hot corner, his footwork, hands, and arm are all quite good. The one knock against Burroughs so far is that he hasn't yet shown much power. But he's only 21 and expected to open 2002 as the Padres third baseman. He'll probably hit like a cross between Mark Grace and Bill Mueller for a few years, but make no mistake, Burroughs is a future #3 hitter and All-Star in the making. He will be an offensive force in San Diego for years to come.

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
Por   AAA  394  .322  .386  .467  37  54   9   2

Not that Burroughs will necessarily develop like Jim Thome but for comparison's sake, here are the numbers of Thome at age 20:

       Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB   SO  SB  CS
AA/AAA/Maj  543  .309  .379  .436  61  103   9   ?

Just a gentle reminder that some prospects develop their power at the big-league level.

 2.  Jake Peavy, RHP
DOB: 05/31/81
Acq: draft 1999, rd 15; St. Paul's Episcopal HS (Mobile, Ala.)
Ht:  6'1" Wt: 180

When drafted, Peavy's fastball hit the high-80s. He now reaches the mid-90s, working comfortably in the 92-94 range. With his effortless delivery and sound mechanics, he draws the inevitable comparisons to Greg Maddux. Peavy has good command of three pitches and a good feel for pitching, keeping the ball down and working both sides of the plate. Although the comparisons to Maddux are flattering, they're a bit premature and don't exactly capture his style. Peavy reminds me more of Florida's Brad Penny. He may not be quite ace material but he'll be pretty darned close.

Club  Lvl     IP   H  HR  BB   SO   ERA
LkE    A+  105.1  76   6  33  144  3.08
Mob    AA   28.0  19   3  12   44  2.57

 3.  Dennis Tankersley, RHP
DOB: 02/24/79
Acq: draft 1998, rd 38 (Bos); Meramec (Mo.) JC
Ht:  6'2" Wt: 185

Tankersley has made tremendous strides since the Padres stole him from the Red Sox as part of a deal involving Ed Sprague. His mid-90s fastball moves in on right handers, and he also features a good breaking ball. His funky delivery draws comparisons to Kevin Appier, though it's not quite as violent; it reminds me more of Dennis Eckersley's. Tankersley gets good sinking action on his pitches, reminiscent of former Padre Matt Clement. He has, however, much better command than Clement. Thanks to Brett Tomko and Kevin Jarvis, Tankersley should be able to spend most of 2002 at Portland, refining his game against tougher competition. Expect to see him up with the big club possibly toward the end of the season, and in definite competition for a spot in the rotation the following year. He's a future #2 starter.

Club  Lvl     IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
LkE    A+   52.1  29   1  12  68  0.52
Mob    AA   69.2  44   6  24  89  2.07
Por   AAA   14.1  16   2   8  16  6.91

 4.  Xavier Nady, 1B
DOB: 11/14/78
Acq: draft 2000, rd 2; U. of California
Ht:  6'1" Wt: 185

Nady is a pure hitter. He has good balance at plate and seems to have a plan of attack, as opposed to just hacking away at anything that moves. Nady has a quick stroke that allows him to drive the ball to all fields. Defensively, at first base he is quick around the bag, and has good hands and a decent arm. There had been talk of moving the collegiate third baseman over to second, but continuing elbow problems (he had Tommy John surgery this off-season) will limit him to DH for much of 2002, and he eventually may move to left field. Wherever he ends up, he's going to hit, with a peak of about .280 with 30+ homers.

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB   SO  SB  CS
LkE    A+  524  .302  .381  .527  62  109   6   0

 5.  Ben Johnson, RF
DOB: 06/18/81
Acq: draft 1999, rd 4 (StL); Germantown (Tenn.) HS
Ht:  6'1" Wt: 200

Johnson is an excellent athlete who has a good mix of power and speed. He will take a walk but hits from behind in the count too often; also, his swing sometimes gets a shade long. In the field, the former high school football star features a strong arm and decent range, although he is sometimes erratic, which is not unusual for such a young player. If he gains better control of the strike zone and settles down in the field, Johnson could be a fixture in right field and the #5 hole for the Padres by late 2003. His upside is roughly a cross between Andruw Jones and Brian Jordan.

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB   SO  SB  CS
LkE    A+  503  .276  .358  .441  54  141  22   7

 6.  Mark Phillips, LHP
DOB: 12/30/81
Acq: draft 2000, rd 1; Hanover (Pa.) HS
Ht:  6'3" Wt: 205

Phillips, who drew comparisons to Rick Ankiel coming out of high school, features a mid-90s fastball and improving secondary pitches. He is a power lefty who has a good idea of what he's trying to do out on the mound. His command occasionally wavers, and he needs to keep himself in better shape. But the tools are definitely there. Phillips is a future potential ace who put up better numbers each time he moved up a level in 2001. His main weakness right now is lack of experience. He should return to Lake Elsinore this season, at least to start, and could end up in Mobile or even Portland if all goes well. Phillips reminds me a bit of a young Mark Langston. He'll probably be at the top of this list next year and in the Padres rotation to stay soon after that.

Club  Lvl     IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Eug    A-   21.2  16   1   9  19  3.74
FtW    A    30.2  19   1  14  27  2.64
LkE    A+   28.0  19   0  14  34  2.57

 7.  Jake Gautreau, 3B
DOB: 11/14/79
Acq: draft 2001, rd 1; Tulane U.
Ht:  6'0" Wt: 190

The second best pure hitter in the 2001 draft (behind Mark Teixeira), Gautreau put questions about his glove largely to rest in his pro debut. He also hit, displaying good patience while spraying line drives all over the field. He even made a successful cameo in the PCL after a late-season injury to Sean Burroughs. Where Gautreau will end up defensively remains an open question. There is talk of moving him to second base due to the organizational logjam at the hot corner. And early returns on his workouts at second have been encouraging. Gautreau probably will begin 2002 in the Cal League and work his way up from there. Whatever position he ends up playing in the bigs, he could produce like Robin Ventura on offense.

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
Eug    A-  178  .309  .389  .517  22  47   1   1
Por   AAA    7  .286  .444  .714   2   2   0   0

 8.  Ben Howard, RHP
DOB: 01/15/79
Acq: draft 1997, rd 2; Central Merry HS (Jackson, Tenn.)
Ht:  6'2" Wt: 190

With Howard, the stuff has never been in doubt. He's always had it. The question has been whether he would ever learn to control his stuff enough to be effective. In 2001, Howard showed the first hints that the answer might be yes. Featuring a mid-90s fastball and improved breaking ball, Howard abused Cal League hitters before a late-season promotion to Double-A Mobile. Vastly improved command was the key to his success last season. If Howard can build on what he accomplished in 2001 and continue to throw strikes, he could be a future #3 starter in the big leagues.

Club  Lvl     IP    H  HR  BB   SO   ERA
LkE    A+   101.2  86   4  32  107  2.83
Mob    AA    30.0  17   3  15   29  2.40

Other resources: Ben Folds Sixteen (FloridaStateLeague.com)

 9.  Jason Middlebrook, RHP
DOB: 06/26/75
Acq: draft 1996, rd 9; Stanford U.
Ht:  6'3" Wt: 215

Middlebrook has seen his career delayed several times due to a series of arm injuries. When healthy, he works with a low-90s fastball that bores in on right-handers. In the minors Middlebrook exhibited excellent command in 2001; however, on reaching San Diego he struggled with location and often left the ball up in the zone with predictable results. Prior to the acquisition of Brett Tomko and the re-signing of Kevin Jarvis, Middlebrook was a strong contender for the #5 spot in the Padres 2002 rotation. Now he'll likely return to Portland for more seasoning. Because Middlebrook will be 27 this year, his window of opportunity is narrow. He needs to establish himself quickly or risk following in the footsteps of another injury-plagued Stanford alum, Stan Spencer.

Club  Lvl     IP   H  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Mob    AA   52.2  36   1   9  51  1.20
Por   AAA   90.1  86   5  23  66  3.29
SD     NL   19.1  18   6  10  10  5.12

10.  Josh Barfield, 2B/SS
DOB: 12/17/82
Acq: draft 2001, rd 4; Klein HS (Spring, Tex.)
Ht:  5'11" Wt: 165

Son of former big-league slugger Jesse Barfield, Josh was pried away from a Baylor scholarship and enjoyed a fine pro debut in the Pioneer League. Drafted as a second baseman, Barfield also played some shortstop at Idaho Falls. He possesses a good mix of power and speed, and if he can tighten up his strike zone, he should produce very well for a middle infielder.

Club  Lvl   AB    BA   OBP   SLG  BB  SO  SB  CS
IdF    R+  277  .310  .350  .437  16  54  12   4