Navigate

Home
Weblog
Articles
Petco Park
Datasets
About
Contact

Syndicate this site!

Got tunes?

Click for San Diego, California Forecast

2001 Lake Elsinore Storm Recap

Introduction

Here's a brief sabermetric look back at the 2001 Lake Elsinore Storm club named Minor League Team of the Year by Baseball America. Particular attention is paid to the pitching staff, specifically the starters. All statistics were gathered from the California League web site, with the exception of those from the game of August 13, which came from the Lake Elsinore Storm site. Three playoff games are included in all statistics.

Pitching, Home vs Road

Throughout the season, the Storm received outstanding pitching. It was so good, in fact, that I got to wondering whether the pitchers were helped at all by their home park. So I broke down the numbers, home vs road, month by month. The overall numbers suggest a slight home advantage. It should be noted that the road ERA spikes in May and July are due in large part to trips to Lancaster and High Desert, historically two of the best hitters' parks in all the minors.

home
        IP    H    R   ER   BB   SO   HR    ERA
Apr   56.7   51   23   18   19   73    2   2.86
May   71.3   47   24   20   28   73    3   2.52
Jun   64.7   50   25   20   12   86    1   2.78
Jul   85.0   65   28   24   25   91    3   2.54
Aug   86.3   74   36   27   31   88    6   2.81
Sep   24.3   24    9    9    4   27    1   3.33
-----------------------------------------------
Tot  388.3  311  145  118  119  438   16   2.73

road
        IP    H    R   ER   BB   SO   HR    ERA
Apr   70.7   47   17   11   20   88    2   1.40
May   71.3   76   49   40   26   68    9   5.05
Jun   77.3   57   21   16   26   73    2   1.86
Jul   66.0   80   46   38   20   60    8   5.18
Aug   85.0   65   36   29   38   85    5   3.07
Sep    6.7    6    2    2    1    9    0   2.70
-----------------------------------------------
Tot  377.0  331  171  136  131  383   26   3.25

Scoring, Home vs Road

I also took a look at scoring in general in Storm games. Again, more runs were scored in games on the road than at home, especially in May and July. Impressively, Lake Elsinore outscored its opponents at home and on the road in every month of the 2001 season.

home
        RS   RA   Tot    G   RPG
Apr     58   46   104   11   9.5
May     68   41   109   15   7.3
Jun     59   42   101   12   8.4
Jul     80   57   137   15   9.1
Aug     52   49   101   14   7.2
Sep     16   11    27    4   6.8
--------------------------------
Tot    333  246   579   71   8.2

road
        RS   RA   Tot    G   RPG
Apr     60   31    91   14   6.5
May     88   74   162   14  11.6
Jun     56   48   104   13   8.0  
Jul     74   71   145   13  11.2
Aug     76   61   137   16   8.6
Sep      8    2    10    1  10.0
--------------------------------
Tot    362  287   649   71   9.1

The Pythagorean Method is a formula originally developed by Bill James that approximates the number of game a team can be expected to win based on the number of runs it scores versus the number it allows. I have used the more basic, somewhat less precise formula of (RS^2)/((RS^2+RA^2). According to this, the Storm won four more games than expected.

            exp     act
 RS   RA   W   L   W   L
695  533  90  53  94  49

Pitching Logs

These are the logs of every game started for the Storm in 2001, plus appearances of 5+ innings made in relief of rehabbing Padre pitchers. Pitchers are presented in the order in which they made their first start for Lake Elsinore. For pitchers who made the Padres Top 30 Prospects list, in addition to the standard numbers, I've included a few extra goodies. PQS is Ron Shandler's Pure Quality Start, which is explained at http://www.baseballhq.com/splog.shtml. Qmax is the brainchild of the folks at the now-defunct Big Bad Baseball Annual. Read more about it at http://www.bigbadbaseball.com/glossary/qmax.html.

Basically, these are measures of pitching performance, independent of runs allowed, on a game-by-game basis. PQS works on a scale of 0 to 5, with 5 being the best. Qmax has two components, stuff (S) and command (C). Each operates on a scale of 1 to 7, with the lower numbers being better. I've also provided the average PQS and Qmax scores for these pitchers. There's a lot more you can do with these numbers if you're so inclined. I leave this to the reader's imagination. I find both measures to be an interesting and different way to look at the traditional pitching line. How much useful information can be gleaned from these is open to debate. I like them; maybe you will, too.

One of the most interesting nuggets I found in digging through these data is that only once in 2001 did a Storm starting pitcher allow more than one homer in a game at home. On August 13, Oliver Perez served up solo shots (the only two runs he surrendered) to Lancaster's Matt Kata and Corey Myers in a 4-1 loss.

Sterling Hitchcock

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
4/5/01   away  4.0  3  0  0  0  2  0
4/10/01  home  4.7  4  0  0  0  7  0
4/15/01  away  5.0  6  1  1  0  5  1
4/21/01  away  5.7  8  7  4  0  8  1
4/26/01  home  4.0 10  6  4  0  5  0
6/14/01  away  3.0  2  4  3  1  4  1

Jake Peavy

                                            Qmax
Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR  PQS   S  C
4/6/01   away  5.0  0  0  0  2  9  0    4   1  4  
4/11/01  home  5.0  6  2  2  1  4  0    3   5  3
4/16/01  away  5.0  2  1  1  0  9  0    4   2  3
4/21/01  away  5.0  2  1  1  4  7  0    3   2  5
4/27/01  home  5.0  6  5  5  2  7  1    3   5  4
5/2/01   away  6.0  4  1  0  1  7  0    5   2  3
5/8/01   home  4.7  5  5  5  5  5  0    0   5  7
5/13/01  home  6.0  5  3  3  3  6  1    5   3  4
5/19/01  away  5.0  5  3  3  3  6  0    4   4  4
5/24/01  home  6.3  4  1  1  0  7  0    5   2  2
5/29/01  away  5.0  6  5  5  2  5  3    2   5  4
6/3/01   home  6.0  5  3  3  1 10  0    5   3  3
6/9/01   home  5.7  3  2  1  1 12  0    4   2  3
6/15/01  away  6.7  5  0  0  1 12  0    5   3  3
6/25/01  away  6.7  6  1  1  1  6  0    5   3  3
6/30/01  away  7.0  3  0  0  2 11  0    5   1  3
7/5/01   home  5.0  4  3  2  2  8  0    4   3  4
7/27/01  home  4.7  1  2  0  1  6  0    0   2  4
8/2/01   home  5.0  4  3  3  1  7  1    3   3  3
9/8/01   home  6.0  5  1  1  0 10  0    5   3  2
                                      3.7 2.9 3.6

Dennis Tankersley

                                            Qmax
Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR  PQS   S  C
4/7/01   away  5.0  2  1  0  0  5  0    4   2  3
4/12/01  home  6.3  5  1  1  0  6  0    5   3  2
4/17/01  away  5.0  5  0  0  0  7  0    4   4  3
4/22/01  away  6.0  3  0  0  0  7  0    5   2  2
4/28/01  home  6.3  3  0  0  3  7  0    5   2  4
5/4/01   home  5.7  2  0  0  2 11  0    4   2  4
5/10/01  home  6.0  2  1  1  3  5  0    4   1  4
5/16/01  home  6.0  4  1  0  2 12  0    5   2  3
5/21/01  away  6.0  3  1  1  2  8  1    5   2  3
                                      4.6 2.4 3.1

Came on in relief of rehabbing starter Carlton Loewer 5/4/01.

Chris Rojas

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
4/8/01   home  4.3  7  5  2  1  7  1
4/13/01  away  4.0  6  3  3  3  5  0
4/18/01  away  5.0  3  2  0  3  8  0
4/24/01  home  5.0  3  1  1  4 10  0
4/29/01  home  6.0  2  1  1  3  9  0
5/5/01   home  4.7  5  3  2  2  4  0
5/11/01  home  7.0  3  0  0  1  5  0
5/17/01  home  5.0  2  1  1  5  2  0
5/22/01  away  5.3  6  6  5  3  4  1
5/27/01  away  6.0  5  6  6  2  6  3
6/1/01   home  5.0  3  3  3  1  6  0
6/7/01   home  6.0  5  1  1  2  5  0
6/12/01  away  6.0  6  2  2  2  6  1
6/17/01  away  7.0  6  1  1  2  6  0
6/23/01  home  5.0  6  2  2  2  6  0
6/28/01  away  8.0  1  0  0  3  8  0
7/3/01   away  4.0  8  5  4  1  3  1
7/8/01   away  5.3  3  2  2  3  3  0
7/14/01  home  7.0  3  2  2  3  5  1
7/19/01  home  7.0  6  1  1  2  4  0
7/24/01  home  5.3  6  3  3  2  6  0
7/29/01  away  6.0  8  4  4  4  5  1
8/4/01   away  6.0  7  3  3  2  2  2
8/10/01  away  6.0  2  1  1  3  4  0
8/15/01  home  6.0  5  3  3  3  7  1
8/20/01  home  5.7  6  5  1  4  5  1
8/25/01  away  5.0  8  5  4  2  4  1
8/30/01  home  7.3  3  1  1  3  4  0
9/10/01  away  6.7  6  2  2  1  9  0

Ben Howard

                                            Qmax
Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR  PQS   S  C
4/9/01   home  5.0  2  0  0  2  6  0    4   2  4
4/14/01  away  4.0  2  1  1  4  5  0    0   2  6
4/19/01  away  5.0  2  0  0  4  5  0    3   2  5
4/25/01  home  5.0  3  2  2  3  5  0    3   2  4
4/30/01  away  7.0  3  0  0  0  6  0    5   1  1
5/6/01   away  3.0  8  4  4  1  5  0    0   7  4
5/12/01  home  6.0  5  2  2  2  5  1    5   3  3
5/18/01  away  7.0  7  2  2  1  4  0    4   4  2
5/23/01  home  5.7  5  3  3  2  5  0    4   3  4
5/28/01  away  5.0  8  3  3  3  4  0    2   6  4
6/2/01   home  5.3  3  2  2  0  5  0    3   2  3
6/8/01   home  7.0  5  3  3  0  5  1    5   2  1
6/13/01  away  5.0  3  2  2  5  5  0    3   2  6
6/24/01  home  7.3  5  1  0  0 16  0    5   2  1
6/29/01  away  6.0  5  3  1  3  6  0    5   3  4
7/4/01   home  7.0  4  0  0  1 10  0    5   2  2
7/9/01   away  6.0 10  5  4  0  5  1    4   7  2
7/15/01  home  5.3  6  4  3  1  5  1    3   5  3
                                      3.5 3.2 3.3

Johnny Hunter

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
5/1/01   away  4.7  3  0  0  0  2  0
5/7/01   away  5.3  3  3  2  1  5  0
5/15/01  home  5.0  1  1  1  3  4  0
5/25/01  home  5.7  3  0  0  0  5  0
5/30/01  away  4.3  6  7  4  3  6  1
6/5/01   home  5.0  5  2  1  3  4  0

Came on in relief of rehabbing starter Carlton Loewer 5/15/01.

Carlton Loewer

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
5/4/01   home  2.0  0  0  0  0  2  0
5/9/01   home  2.7  2  0  0  2  4  0
5/15/01  home  3.0  0  2  0  1  5  0
5/20/01  away  3.7  4  5  2  1  3  0

Steve Montgomery

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
5/26/01  home  0.7  2  2  2  0  1  1

Mike Thompson

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
5/26/01  home  5.0  5  2  2  0  2  0
5/31/01  away  5.0  8  3  3  3  3  0
6/6/01   home  5.0  4  3  3  2  4  0
6/11/01  away  6.0  5  3  3  2  3  0
6/26/01  away  7.7  6  2  2  2  3  0
7/6/01   away  2.3  6  6  6  0  1  1
7/10/01  away  5.0  6  2  2  2  2  0
7/16/01  away  5.7  4  2  2  3  5  1
7/22/01  home  6.0  5  1  1  2  3  1
8/17/01  home  6.0  6  3  3  0  2  1
8/22/01  home  5.3  9  5  4  2  4  0
8/27/01  away  0.7  1  4  4  5  1  0
9/1/01   home  6.0  7  3  3  1  3  1

Came on in relief of rehabbing starter Steve Montgomery 5/26/01.

Eric Cyr

                                            Qmax
Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR  PQS   S  C
6/10/01  home  3.0  3  1  1  0  2  0    0   4  4
6/16/01  away  3.0  4  1  0  1  2  0    0   5  4
6/22/01  home  4.3  3  2  0  0 11  0    0   3  3
6/27/01  away  5.3  5  2  1  1  1  0    2   3  3
7/2/01   home  6.0  4  0  0  2  8  0    5   2  3
7/7/01   away  6.3  2  1  0  3  6  0    5   1  4
7/13/01  home  7.0  5  2  2  0  7  0    5   2  1
7/18/01  away  7.0  2  0  0  1  6  0    5   1  2
7/23/01  home  4.0  5  3  3  1  6  0    0   5  4
7/28/01  away  6.3  5  1  1  1 12  1    5   3  3
8/3/01   away  6.7  2  1  1  2  7  0    5   1  3
8/8/01   away  7.0  1  0  0  2 14  0    5   1  3
8/14/01  home  7.0  6  2  1  1 10  0    5   3  2
8/19/01  home  7.7  4  2  1  1  8  0    5   2  2
8/24/01  away  3.3  4  2  2  3  3  0    0   5  5
8/29/01  away  3.0  6  6  3  2  6  0    0   6  5
9/9/01   home  6.3  8  4  4  1  7  0    4   5  3
                                      3.0 3.1 3.2

Brian Tollberg

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
7/1/01   away  5.0  6  3  2  0  5  0
7/11/01  away  5.0 12  8  5  1  4  1

Andy Bausher

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
7/17/01  away  2.0  8  7  6  1  3  1
8/7/01   away  5.0  2  0  0  0  3  0

Steve Watkins

Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR
7/20/01  home  3.7  2  0  0  2  5  0
7/25/01  home  5.0  2  2  2  2  5  0
7/31/01  home  6.0  6  2  2  2  6  0
8/5/01   away  9.0  8  0  0  1  1  0
8/12/01  away  5.7  5  2  2  0  6  0

Oliver Perez

                                            Qmax
Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR  PQS   S  C
7/26/01  home  6.0  6  3  3  2  7  0    5   4  3
8/1/01   home  6.0  8  4  2  0  5  0    4   6  2
8/6/01   away  6.0  4  4  2  4  7  1    4   2  4
8/13/01  home  5.0  6  2  2  5  8  2    1   5  6
8/18/01  home  7.7  4  1  1  2  8  0    5   2  3
8/23/01  away  4.3  4  3  2  3  8  1    0   3  5
8/28/01  away  7.0  5  2  2  4  5  0    4   2  4
9/2/01   home  6.0  4  1  1  2  7  0    5   2  3
                                      3.5 3.3 3.8

Mark Phillips

                                            Qmax
Date      H/A   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR  PQS   S  C
8/11/01  away  5.0  3  1  1  1  6  0    4   2  3
8/16/01  home  5.0  1  0  0  7  5  0    3   1  7
8/21/01  home  6.0  4  1  1  2  7  0    5   2  3
8/26/01  away  5.3  3  2  2  4  8  0    4   2  5
8/31/01  home  6.7  8  4  4  0  8  0    4   5  2
                                      4.0 2.4 4.0

Well, that's probably more numbers than you ever wanted, but there they are. Use them well....

Return to Top