Future Friars: Xavier Nady

Xavier Nady, the Padres' second-round pick in 2000, is making steady progress at Class-A Lake Elsinore in the California League. Actually, that's a bit of an understatement. Nady, a preseason favorite to be the #1 selection overall in 2000, saw his draft stock plummet thanks to a subpar junior season and the presence of Scott Boras as his adviser, has laid to rest any doubts about his bat with a .296/.375/.538 showing in his first full professional season.

After singling in his first (and only) big-league at-bat last year, Nady headed off to the Arizona Fall League to get more work in; unfortunately, an elbow injury shut him down after just one game. A third baseman at the University of California, Nady moved to first base this year to accommodate überprospect Sean Burroughs and, more importantly, to protect his elbow. The current plan is to shift him to second base this off-season in the AFL.

Nady, 22, has a short stroke that generates power, mainly to left and left-center, and he's displayed solid, though not great, plate discipline. Although he hasn't done much with the bat in games I've attended, it's clear from watching him that he has a plan. His actions as a hitter are somewhat reminiscent of Edgar Martinez, though it's unreasonable to expect similar production from Nady.

Under normal conditions, I'd expect Nady to jump to Triple-A next year. However, if the move to second base takes, my guess is that the Padres will place him at Double-A Mobile to start the season. From a hitting standpoint, Nady is pretty close. The question is where he'll play in the bigs, with guys like Ryan Klesko, Phil Nevin, Sean Burroughs, Ray Lankford, and Bubba Trammell all clogging up the corners.

At his peak, Nady should develop into a .280+ hitter with 30-35 homer power. If he remains at second, Nady could be a Jeff Kent-type run producer. If he moves to first base or left field, he'll still be a darned good offensive player but probably not in the elite ranks that he could join at a more offense-deficient position. Regardless, Nady has the potential to be a solid big-league regular for years to come, with a few All-Star Game appearances a good possibility.