Padres Farm Report: Buddy Carlyle

Righthander Buddy Carlyle, a former 2nd round draft pick of the Cincinnati Reds, was obtained by San Diego at the end of spring training 1998 in exchange for hard-throwing righthander Marc Kroon. Kroon has long since been released, and Reds GM Jim Bowden readily concedes this trade was a mistake. Padres GM Kevin Towers calls "the strike" Buddy Carlyle's best pitch. In 1999, an improved changeup led to a dramatic increase in strikeouts. Following are notes I made after watching him pitch earlier this year, as well as random, assorted comments.

April 30, 1999: Calgary at Las Vegas

Unusual delivery, with slight hesitation just after he breaks his hands. No radar, but his fastball looked about average. Good overhand curveball and changed speeds well. Threw a lot of off-speed stuff to set up a high fastball. Struck me as an unusual m.o. for a guy without a blazing fastball, but for the most part it worked tonight. Struck out 6 in 6 innings. Decent pickoff move but with Ben Davis behind the plate it doesn't matter much. The guy can throw out anyone. Carlyle also appeared to have a clue at the plate. Bats lefty; fouled off a bunch of pitches from Calgary southpaw Brent Billingsley. Surprisingly tough out.

May 31, 1999: Las Vegas at Albuquerque

Caught a little bit of the Stars/Dukes game on TV this afternoon. Carlyle pitched, looked good--I like his approach; he really comes after hitters. Not afraid to work inside, despite lack of great stuff. Doesn't back down. The way he pitches, you'd never guess he's 21. Doesn't seem awed by the fact that he's working against guys who've played in the Show. He ended up giving up 5 or so runs in about 6 innings, but I believe all but 2 of the runs were unearned thanks to some really shaky defense--dropped flyball by Aaron Guiel and misplay by 3B Carlos Garcia. Yes, that Carlos Garcia. But Carlyle was very stingy with the hits--the only balls hit hard were a double by Paul LoDuca, followed by a wind-and-altitude-aided homer to right center field by Adam Riggs. Buddy eventually tired and started to lose command of his pitches but overall he looked very good. Nice deception on his delivery and fearlessness on the mound. Statistically speaking, he's keeping the ball in the park, which isn't always easy in the PCL, and his K rate is way up this year over last. I really like this guy long-term, as a mid-rotation starter.

The Numbers

                      W-L     ERA   G GS CG SHO SV  IP     H   R  ER HR HB  BB  SO WP  OAVG
Thru June 5           6-2    3.41  11 11  0   0  0  71.1  70  34  27  8  3  17  55  2  .259
June 6-July 11        2-2    8.33   6  6  0   0  0  35.2  55  35  33  9  2   9  37  3  .357
July 12 onward        3-4    4.58   8  8  0   0  0  53.0  55  30  27  8  1  16  46  1  .268
===========================================================================================
Total                11-8    4.89  25 25  0   0  0 160.0 180  99  87 25  6  42 138  6  .286

A couple quick observations here. First, even during that disastrous six-game stretch, Carlyle's K/BB was excellent. His problem was that he was getting hit, and getting hit hard. But he never stopped throwing strikes. Second, despite that stretch, Carlyle still finished the season with an ERA below the team average. Cashman Field, as I've noted on more than one occasion, is an absolutely terrible place to pitch. I don't have the park factors, but to give you some idea, games in which the Las Vegas Stars played in 1999 averaged 11.23 runs. The Colorado Rockies averaged 11.94 runs. The National League average was 9.95 runs per game. A sub-5.00 ERA in Cashman Field is actually pretty impressive.

Buddy Carlyle held his own in nine big league starts. His overall numbers weren't too good but he didn't look overmatched on the mound. Appeared to be fighting his control more than in the minors but that's not surprising for a young pitcher. He also supposedly had added a couple feet to his fastball by the end of the season (he was clocked at 94 MPH in Arizona--I'm a bit skeptical of this, but even 90-91 would be good).

There is, as you might expect, a wide difference of opinion within the organization about Carlyle's future role with the Padres. Towers loves the guy because of his Hershiser-like refuse-to-back-down approach to pitching. Others see a guy with a so-so fastball and think he'll end up in middle relief. Personally, I expect he'll be a real nice #3 or at worst #4 guy. How soon he arrives depends a lot on what San Diego does this off-season with Andy Ashby, and how quickly and effectively Brian Boehringer returns from shoulder surgery.

I've actually got quite a bit more to say about Buddy Carlyle but I didn't want to throw everything out at once. If you haven't grown tired of this report yet, feel free to read more about him. [Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your perspective), the file containing further information on Carlyle has been lost. Of course, it doesn't much matter now that he's pitching in Japan. Still, it wouldn't surprise me to see him eventually have a big-league career. --7 June 2001]