Anatomy of a Winning Streak
Now that it's over (though not without a fight--down 7-0 after 2 innings at Coors Field, the Padres came storming back, only to lose 12-10), I thought I'd take a closer look at the Padres' 14 game winning streak. My primary focus is on starting pitching. I'll examine wins, Ron Shandler's Pure Quality Starts, and issues of endurance and control. In addition, I'll also take a cursory look at the Pythagorean Theorem as it relates to the streak.
Raw Starting Pitching Data
San Diego IP H R ER BB K HR BFP Pit B-S ERA OpBA
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hitchcock (W 7-6) 8 7 3 3 3 2 2 33 116 46-70 4.25 .239
Clement (W 5-7) 5.2 5 3 2 5 3 0 28 106 49-57 4.66 .275
Boehringer (W 5-1) 5 7 2 2 4 3 1 24 89 38-51 2.85 .249
Ashby 7.2 4 3 2 2 4 1 28 102 40-62 3.39 .246
W.Williams (W 4-5) 6 8 3 2 2 3 0 28 96 32-64 3.59 .260
Hitchcock (W 6-6) 8 6 2 2 1 8 2 31 117 39-78 4.33 .240
Clement (W 4-7) 6 7 4 4 2 3 1 27 96 34-62 4.76 .279
Boehringer (W 4-1) 7 4 0 0 1 4 0 26 97 35-62 2.77 .238
Ashby (W 7-4) 6 4 1 1 1 4 0 23 66 19-47 3.49 .253
W.Williams (W 3-5) 8 5 2 2 2 4 1 32 107 40-67 3.63 .256
Hitchcock (W 5-6) 6.2 6 1 1 1 7 0 28 104 35-69 4.52 .243
Clement (W 3-7) 6 7 3 3 3 2 1 26 99 38-61 4.66 .279
Murray 6 5 4 4 2 3 0 27 106 41-65 4.50 .285
Boehringer (W 3-1) 5 6 2 2 0 4 1 21 81 24-57 3.24 .250
Preliminaries
Padres starters worked at least 5 innings in all 14 games of the winning streak. Their collective record during that period was 12-0, with the only no-decisions coming from Ashby (who did have a key hit on a fake bunt that kept the Padres in the game) and Murray. Of the 14 starts, 9 were quality starts (i.e., at least 6 IP, no more than 3 ER).
The average line of a starting pitcher during the streak was as follows:
IP H R ER BB K
6.2 6 2 2 2 4
Here is the wins distribution:
Hitchcock: 3
Clement: 3
Boehringer: 3
Ashby: 1
Williams: 2
Pure Quality Starts
The pure quality start (PQS) is a measure developed by Ron Shandler for evaluating individual starting performances (and, by extension, a series of starts over the course of a season). The methods are not perfect but I believe this metric is a better reflection of a starter's overall performance than is the more traditional quality start. The criteria are as follows:
- The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. For a 6 IP performance, the pitcher gets 1 point. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he posted.
- He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of innings pitched. This measures hit prevention and earns him 1 point.
- His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched (IP minus K must be 2 or less). This measures dominance and earns him 1 point.
- He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures control and earns him 1 point.
- He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park and earns him 1 point.
Here are the PQS scores during the streak:
Hitchcock: 2, 5, 4
Clement: 2, 2, 2
Boehringer: 1, 4, 3
Ashby: 4, 5
Williams: 2, 4
Murray: 3
A score of 5 indicates an excellent start, whereas a score of 0 indicates a terrible start. Of the 14 starts during the streak, 2 were excellent (Hitchcock, Ashby), 4 were very good (Hitchcock, Boehringer, Ashby, Williams), 1 was pretty good (Boehringer), 5 were decent (Hitchcock, Clement x 3, Williams), 1 was mediocre (Boehringer), and 0 were terrible.
The average PQS over the 14 games was 3.07.
In terms of PQS, the most effective starters during the streak were, in descending order:
1. Ashby
2. Hitchcock
3. (tie) Williams/Murray
5. Boehringer
6. Clement
Oddly enough, two of the three starters who had the most wins (3) during the streak were Boehringer and Clement, who also had the lowest PQS scores. A quick glance at run support helps explain this phenomenon:
GS Runs R/G
----------------------------
Hitchcock 3 24 8.0
Clement 3 25 8.3
Boehringer 3 25 8.3
Ashby 2 6 3.0
Williams 2 14 7.0
Murray 1 5 5.0
Endurance and Control
BF/G Pit/G %Str
-------------------------------
Hitchcock 30.7 112.3 64.4
Clement 27.0 100.3 59.8
Boehringer 23.7 89.0 63.7
Ashby 25.5 84.0 64.9
Williams 30.0 101.5 64.5
Murray 27.0 106.0 61.3
Note. BF/G, batters faced per game; Pit/G, pitches per game; %Str, percentage of pitches thrown for a strike.
Not surprisingly, Ashby was the most efficient, in terms of getting deep into games without throwing a lot of pitches. It also figures that Clement threw the lowest percentage of strikes (though this seems pretty good for him). Boehringer's control was unexpectedly good. Hitchcock worked deeper into (and pitched more effectively late in) games than usual.
Pythagorean Theorem
The Padres outscored their opponents during the streak, 99-41. Using the most basic version of the Pythagorean Theorem (Winning Percentage = Runs2 / [Runs2 + Runs Allowed2]), we would expect the Padres to have won at an .854 clip, or roughly 12 of the 14 games.
Where did the two extra wins come from? Anectodally, I'd speculate they came from outstanding relief pitching and defense, and extreme aggressiveness on the basepaths.
Open Questions
In addition to their having outperformed the Pythagorean by 2 games, I suspect that the Padres offense was more efficient during the 14 game winning streak than before. By this I mean that they probably scored more runs than a simple OBP x SLG x AB (or any other runs created) formula would indicate they should have. My reasons for believing this are based on purely anectodal evidence, such as seeing speedy and aggressive baserunners steal bases at will, break up double plays, beat throws to first base, force opposing infields to play in to cut off a run, etc. When I have the time, I'd like to look at this in greater detail to see whether my hypothesis is correct. One of these days....
Return to Top
|
.gif)
