Paul Konerko and the Myth of the Dodger Prospect Hype Machine

Now that the season is finally over and I'm not able to cash in the $20 bet I had on the Padres to win it all at 28-1 odds (I placed the bet just prior to the deal for Kevin Brown), I'm starting to go through my files and finding all sorts of wonderful stuff.

Here's a message I posted to one of the AOL boards (I believe it was STATS' Cincinnati Reds board), dated July 6, 1998. I think it's still relevant.

In defending the Dodgers' and then-GM Tommy Lasorda's trade of Paul Konerko and Dennis Reyes to the Reds for Jeff Shaw, it was suggested that "Konerko is but the latest in a long line of Dodger farm system sluggers that tore it up in Albuquerque only to struggle in the majors.... In this group are such players as Eric Karros, Mike Marshall, Billy Ashley and Greg Brock. That's the kind of player Konerko is gonna be. He might be as good as Karros, or as bad as Ashley."

I couldn't let this go, of course, so here was my reply:

Let's give the guy more than 150 ABs in the big leagues before we write him off. Also, it should be noted that Konerko also tore it up at San Antonio, a horrible home run park, the year before.

Following are the first full seasons at Albuquerque of Karros, Marshall, Ashley, Brock, and Konerko, respectively.

PLAYER    YR  AGE   G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB  SO  SB   AVG   OBP   SLG
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KARROS    91  24  132  488   88  154  33   8  22  101   58  80   3  .316  .391  .551
MARSHALL  81  21  128  467  114  174  25   7  34  137   57  80  21  .373  .445  .675
ASHLEY    93  22  125  482   88  143  31   4  26  100   35 143   6  .297  .344  .539
BROCK     82  25  135  480  118  149  21   8  44  138  105  81   4  .310  .432  .662
KONERKO   97  21  130  483   97  156  31   1  37  127   64  61   2  .323  .407  .621

Karros was 3 years older and put up worse numbers, Marshall put up better numbers at the same age, Ashley's numbers are laughable, and Brock was slightly better but 4 years older.

Now here are the career MLB stats of the same guys (except Konerko, for obvious reasons):

PLAYER       G    AB    R    H   2B  3B   HR  RBI   BB   AVG   OBP   SLG
------------------------------------------------------------------------
KARROS     954  3596  464  955  173   9  162  578  297  .266  .321  .454
MARSHALL  1035  3593  433  971  173   8  148  530  247  .270  .321  .446
ASHLEY     275   606   54  141   22   1   26   82   62  .233  .307  .401
BROCK     1013  3202  420  794  141   6  110  462  434  .248  .338  .399

Marshall and Karros have been similar hitters as big leaguers. Ashley has been predictably mediocre (at best), and Brock essentially peaked around the time he reached the majors. It is conceivable that Konerko could be as bad as Marshall or Karros, though Konerko has displayed better plate discipline than either of them did at the same level. Comparisons to Ashley and Brock are far-fetched at best: Ashley because of his atrocious strike zone judgment, and Brock because by the time Konerko turns 25 (the same age Brock was when he was tearing up the PCL) he should have more career homers than Brock.

Realistically, assuming Konerko is given the opportunity to play every day, and assuming he is able to make the adjustments all young players must make when they step up to a higher level (and there's no reason based on his past history to believe he cannot), Konerko should consistently put up numbers on the order of .280/.370/.550 for the next 8-12 years, numbers which Karros once approached, at age 27. Konerko's ceiling is more along the lines of Jeff Bagwell. If he doesn't develop as expected, he could settle into another Eric Karros, which would certainly be disappointing but by no means embarrassing.