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Looking into the Crystal Ball: Part 1

In his 1985 Baseball Abstract, Bill James introduced the Brock2 System, a method for projecting a player's career stats based on what he's done so far. James himself recognized its limitations and said, ultimately, that he used the system because "it's fun to play around with." The system has since been modified countless times (last I checked, they were up to "Brock6"), but I still wouldn't go betting the farm that it will work even a small percentage of the time.

Now, if you're like Bill James and think this sort of thing is "fun," you can download a copy of the original Brock2 spreadsheet from Baseball1.com. If you're not really into that, but think it might be fun to sneak a peak at the results for a few players, you're in luck. I've included a baker's dozen young players whose careers I thought it would be interesting to project. There was no real method to my selection other than these are all players I kind of like and was curious to see how their careers might turn out. I'm not going to offer any commentary on any of these, because frankly, what can I possibly say about them? I could tell you I expect Richard Hidalgo to hit at least one triple in his career, but that's hardly useful.

So, take these projections for what they are: fun. This time we look at 13 NL players. Next time we'll visit the AL, land of the uber-shortstops.

Career

Player           G     AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB   AVG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Abreu, Bo     2196   6928   760  1971  364   54  234   979  1031  .284
Fullmer, Br   1683   5667   663  1561  446   16  198   824   487  .275
Guerrero, Vl  3063  10939  1697  3347  619   72  720  2170   881  .306
Helton, To    2405   7749  1003  2285  452   14  416  1360   796  .295
Hidalgo, Ri   2627   7673  1066  2266  488    0  297  1155   710  .295
Jones, An     3030   9616  1497  2521  502   75  637  1831   968  .262
Kendall, Ja   2802   9310  1391  2824  589   44  200  1159   964  .303
Kotsay, Ma    1806   6468   831  1812  278   66  151   784   478  .280
Lee, De       1855   5730   921  1437  351   10  286   923   687  .251
Marrero, El   1479   4452   510  1121  279   12  110   516   483  .252
Renteria, Ed  2373   8876  1392  2579  329   32   69   787   843  .291
Rolen, Sc     2903  10107  1750  2815  645   41  544  1774  1454  .279
Tatis, Fe     1898   6536   862  1797  364   30  196   851   518  .275

Peak (age 27)

Player           G     AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   RBI    BB   AVG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Abreu, Bo      154    502    72   160   30    5   21    83    84  .318
Fullmer, Br    153    526    75   157   46    2   21    84    48  .299
Guerrero, Vl   154    575   120   198   37    5   46   137    49  .344
Helton, To     154    517    89   171   34    1   34   106    58  .330
Hidalgo, Ri    153    465    86   153   34    0   23    83    47  .330
Jones, An      153    507   107   151   30    5   42   117    56  .298
Kendall, Ja    153    532   104   179   38    3   15    79    61  .336
Kotsay, Ma     152    555    86   169   26    6   15    75    45  .304
Lee, De        152    486    96   133   33    1   28    87    63  .275
Marrero, El    152    468    65   128   32    2   13    61    54  .274
Renteria, Ed   152    577   111   182   23    2    5    59    61  .316
Rolen, Sc      154    558   133   175   42    3   38   117    92  .313
Tatis, Fe      152    536    86   160   33    3   18    78    46  .300

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